While alternating confrontation and negotiation seems to be the new normal, the summit holds out the possibility of a recalibration of the US-China relationship
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-level meeting with US President Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, sends a positive signal for China-US relations.
Before the meeting, Trump posted on social media: “THE G2 WILL BE CONVENING SHORTLY!” The concept of a Group of Two (G2) refers to China and the United States collaborating to address global challenges. This idea was proposed in the 2000s by economist Fred Bergsten and touted by former US national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski.
Over the years, as the US has framed its China policy within the context of great power competition, the term G2 has gradually fallen out of use. When discussing US-China relations, American strategists have treated a hardline stance towards China as a form of political correctness, avoiding rhetoric based on cooperation.
As a politician inclined to break with convention, Trump’s statements regarding China reveal novel perspectives. Trump’s mention of the G2 shouldn’t be overstated, but it is important to recognise that the US president values great power coordination. In late July, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that US-China relations are entering a new phase of “strategic stability”.
Beijing is seeking to leverage the Trump administration’s evolving approach to international affairs and shifting preferences to stabilise China-US relations. Good foreign policy starts at home, and both Xi and Trump are more focused on internal affairs. Xi’s reference to “Make America Great Again” (Maga) during the meeting reflects Beijing’s desire to shape common ground between China and the US.
Trump’s Maga slogan may resonate with the Communist Party’s call for the “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation”. Beijing aims to seek convergence between Trump’s Maga and its own “make China great again” agenda. As Xi said, “China and the United States should be partners and friends”. He noted that this is what history has taught us and what the current moment calls for.
From Beijing’s perspective, China and the US are both faced with the necessity and have the capability to find a path to shared prosperity. There is room for greater cooperation, given the changes under way in both countries. China is striving to become a consumer powerhouse. In March, Chinese officials said that macro data indicated that the country has annual consumption valued at nearly 50 trillion yuan (US$7 trillion) and that imports of goods and services were worth 20 trillion yuan.
Xi confidently emphasised that China’s economy is like a vast ocean, “resilient and promising”. Stimulating domestic consumption has become a priority for China’s next five-year plan. As a result, China may import more American agricultural goods, energy products and Boeing aircraft.
Thanks to the summit, China and the US may promote exchanges in areas beyond trade and the economy in the coming months. Xi stressed that dialogue is better than confrontation. China and the US should maintain communication through various channels and at various levels.
There is good potential for the two countries to work together on combating illegal immigration, telecoms fraud, money laundering, the risks associated with artificial intelligence, and infectious diseases. Going forward, China and the US are expected to resume dialogue in fields such as security and law enforcement.
Furthermore, Xi’s stated appreciation for Trump’s diplomatic outreach around the world was meaningful. China can play a role in supporting such efforts. As Xi said during the summit, the world today is confronted with many tough problems. The president also said that China and the US should engage in positive interactions on regional and international platforms.
The US has sought China’s help with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, requesting Beijing to cease oil imports from Russia. This would be complicated given China’s energy needs and its goal of maintaining stable relations with its northern neighbour. However, Trump has mentioned an energy deal between China and the US, and stated that China agreed to cooperate in promoting a resolution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
While the summit was a good start to repairing ties between Beijing and Washington, it did not represent an end to tensions. The success of the summit in South Korea largely hinged on Washington and Beijing adopting a pragmatic approach and apparently setting aside sensitive topics like the Taiwan question. Given the deep-rooted differences on issues such as trade and export controls, future interactions between the two nations are likely to encounter new setbacks.
The pattern of alternating between confrontation and negotiation has become the new normal. Trump himself frequently exhibits erratic behaviour. Some analysts have doubts over the sustainability of Trump’s restraint on the Taiwan question. It is very challenging for the two sides to revitalise mutual trust, especially in the military and security field.
Indeed, the summit in Busan can bring about a tactical detente rather than a strategic reset. More efforts are needed from both sides to resolve trade issues and resume policy dialogues in the backdrop of the trade ceasefire and Beijing’s announced rare export controls. The two sides must use rather than abuse the summit to make substantial progress before Trump’s planned visit to China next April.
The new G2 does not imply that China and the US will jointly govern the world, nor does it mean that competition will be replaced by cooperation. Rather, it signifies that both countries recognise the importance of recalibrating the bilateral relationship and are willing to engage in more communication and coordination in a multipolar world.
