Cooperation on geopolitical and geostrategic interests seen to be largely unaffected, along with ‘basic strategic choice to counter China’
Beijing should remain alert to the continued solidarity between the US and its regional partners in countering China, despite their trade tensions with Washington, Chinese observers have warned.
They cited this week’s meeting of Indo-Pacific Quad partners as the latest example of such unified signalling.
The top diplomats of the United States, Japan, Australia and India, meeting in Washington on Tuesday, agreed to deepen cooperation on Indo-Pacific maritime security and introduce a critical minerals initiative to diversify supply chains.
“We remain seriously concerned about the situation in the East China Sea and South China Sea,” read a joint statement following the talks between US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and his three counterparts – Takeshi Iwaya of Japan, Penny Wong of Australia and India’s Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
The apparent reference was to regional tensions and disputes with China involving territorial claims and freedom of navigation in these maritime areas.
“We are deeply concerned about the abrupt constriction and future reliability of key supply chains, specifically for critical minerals,” the statement added, again apparently referring to China leveraging its rare earths dominance, though it was not mentioned by name.
The latest Quad foreign ministers’ meeting built upon their previous gathering on January 21, held just one day after US President Donald Trump’s inauguration for his second term.
That meeting was widely viewed as an early indication of the administration’s focus on China, despite the White House’s increasing attention towards the Middle East and the war in Ukraine in recent months.
Zhu Feng, dean of the school of international studies at Nanjing University, said Tuesday’s meeting offered little novelty.
“[The meeting] showed that the Trump administration, regardless of adjustments in its domestic and foreign policies, still firmly views China as its largest strategic rival and keeps the Indo-Pacific as a key point of the US global security strategy,” he said.
Although members of the US-led informal strategic forum share concerns about Beijing’s expanding influence in the Indo-Pacific, the latest talks took place as Quad ties are put to the test by Trump’s global tariffs and defence disagreements.
All three Quad partners face steep US import duties with Trump’s 90-day pause on what he calls reciprocal tariffs set to expire in a week’s time.
The same day as the Quad meeting, Trump said a trade deal with Japan was unlikely before the July 9 deadline, warning that tariffs on Japanese imports could increase to up to 35 per cent.
Washington is also reviewing its Aukus defence pact with Britain and Australia, initiated under Trump’s predecessor Joe Biden, which would allow Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines – citing concerns over pressures on its own fleet.
Zhu said that despite the trade tensions, cooperation between the US and its allies and partners with regard to geopolitical and geostrategic interests remained largely unaffected.
“The outcome of this Quad meeting also showed the basic reality that while trade disputes within the US alliance and partnership system are indeed on the rise, there has been no substantive change in their so-called common will in geopolitical and geostrategic domains and the basic strategic choice to counter China,” he said.
China still needed to remain “highly vigilant” about the increasing coordination and strategic alignment under US-led alliances on policies toward Beijing, Zhu noted, while warning against assuming that Trump’s actions in the economic and trade arena would create cracks in the US alliance system in the short term.
Other analysts also believe that tariff tensions and other disagreements are unlikely to undermine their collective commitment to building a “China-free” critical mineral supply chain.
Shen Dingli, a professor of international relations at Fudan University in Shanghai, said that China’s dominance of rare earth minerals – shown to be a powerful bargaining tool in negotiations with the US – had “delivered a jolt”, prompting other nations to strengthen critical mineral independence.
But given that achieving self-sufficiency in critical minerals may take three to five years, Quad nations would in the short term maintain “a delicate balance of competing without a complete rupture [with China],” Shen said.
“However, Beijing should wield its rare earth card ‘judiciously’, ensuring that they remain partially dependent on China while avoiding a full-scale decoupling,” he suggested.
“Ultimately, Beijing’s goal is to solidify its own strategic autonomy, not to inadvertently push its competitors to achieve complete independence in rare earths.”
Zhao Minghao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, said while Beijing’s dominance in the sector was a shared strategic concern for the Quad, “it would be extremely difficult to establish an independent supply chain without China”.
A fact sheet released after Tuesday’s foreign ministers’ meeting announced the launch of the Quad Critical Minerals Initiative, which “will strengthen cooperation on priorities such as securing and diversifying reliable supply chains, and electronic waste (e-waste) critical minerals recovery and re-processing”.
Zhao said the initiative looked like a continuation of the US-led Minerals Security Partnership launched in 2022 that aimed to reduce Chinese influence in the critical minerals industry.
That effort had “seen little progress”, he noted, due to the time required to restructure the industrial chain and develop relevant technology, and also the lingering issue of how much cost each participating country could bear.
“During Trump’s second term, initiatives like this would likely encounter a heightened ‘collective action dilemma’, as countries remain wary of US policies and seek to maintain a balanced approach in their relations with Beijing,” Zhao added.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Centre for American Studies at Fudan, said that with the three US Quad partners likely to be more concerned about impending US tariffs, they might not be as enthusiastic about the grouping as they were during the Biden administration.
The latest Quad meeting looked somewhat like a “routine exercise”, Wu said, adding that the “Quad currently does not hold a significant place in Trump’s foreign strategy.”
Still, China should keep a close eye on developments in the group’s maritime law enforcement cooperation, Wu warned. “If it moves toward the South China Sea, we must be very cautious,” he said.
“Especially if, to some extent, the Philippines is brought in to conduct law enforcement and security activities in disputed areas of the South China Sea, that will require a strong response from us,” he added.
The Philippines is among several regional nations to contest Beijing’s expansive claims in the strategic waterway.
According to Tuesday’s joint statement, the Quad countries agreed to continue to deepen “maritime law enforcement cooperation through regional training initiatives, maritime legal dialogues, and Coast Guard cooperation”.
The group also pledged to increase collaboration on critical and emerging technologies – including artificial intelligence, semiconductors, technical standards, biotechnology and cybersecurity – while renewing their commitment to support humanitarian assistance and emergency response operations.
