Singapore, one of the US’ closest partners in the region, is the most worried about the impact of Trump’s second term, a new survey shows
More people in Southeast Asia expect American engagement in the region under the Donald Trump administration to increase this year, according to a new survey by Singapore’s ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute.
Countries exhibiting the strongest sentiment in this area – accounting for more than 40 per cent of respondents – are Laos, Vietnam, Brunei and Cambodia.
On the flipside, a third of respondents think that American engagement will decrease or significantly lessen under Trump’s second term.
Singapore had the most pessimistic outlook, with more than half of respondents from the city state indicating this view. Malaysia followed closely at 48.3 per cent, while Thailand was at 40.9 per cent.
There was a danger, however, in oversimplifying the Asean’s response to Trump, Michael Green, chief executive officer of the United States Studies Centre in Australia, warned at a webinar for the launch of the survey on Thursday morning.
“A lot of experts around the world have predicted that a Trump presidency would mean abandonment of Asia, or a retreat from Southeast Asia,” he said. “We should be very careful not to stereotype or simplify how Asean states will respond to Donald Trump, or how a Trump administration will necessarily work with Asean.”
He added that those who were worried about the Trump administration’s engagement with the region were “right” to think so when it came to trade issues or agreements, though it might not be the same for defence.
In the 2024 survey, 38.2 per cent said that Washington’s engagement with Southeast Asia had gone down.
These findings are part of the seventh iteration of the State of Southeast Asia survey, which delves into the views of regional opinion makers and thought leaders on geopolitical developments and issues affecting the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
The survey was conducted over six weeks, from January to February, straddling Trump’s second term inauguration on January 20.
Researchers gathered the views of some 2,000 respondents from the 10 Asean member states and East Timor, which is in the midst of being added to the regional bloc.
But panellists at the webinar pointed out that the survey was conducted before and during the early days of Trump taking office.
If the survey were to be taken today, I’m not sure it would replicate the answers that we got
“If the survey were to be taken today, I’m not sure it would replicate the answers that we got, which is really a reflection of how things have moved and how rapidly they’ve moved just in the last month or so,” said Peter Varghese, chancellor of the University of Queensland, Australia.
Most recently, Trump announced a 10 per cent baseline tariff on all imports to the US and higher duties on some of the country’s largest trading partners and others.
China, which would be subject to 34 per cent tariffs, vowed to retaliate and protect its national interests.
Its commerce ministry said that China “firmly opposes the move and will take resolute countermeasures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests”, and described the tariffs as a “typical act of unilateral bullying”.
This would make the results of the survey “quite transient” said panellist Yenny Wahid, a director of the Wahid Foundation, an Indonesian non-governmental organisation promoting moderate Islamic views.
She added that factors such as the newly announced tariffs were likely to have a huge impact on how the second Trump presidency would be viewed in the region.
Despite this, if forced to choose between strategic rivals US and China, Southeast Asian nations would pick the US, the study said, with 52.3 per cent indicating this.
The results were different to the previous year’s survey, where for the first time, more people in Southeast Asia preferred alignment with China over the United States.
The decision was fuelled by disillusionment with Washington’s foreign-policy actions and the economic benefits of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, among others.
‘Delicate balancing act’
“This narrow margin underscores Asean’s delicate balancing act between the two major powers, as economic interdependence with China competes with security considerations and more comfortable historical ties to the United States,” the report said.
Varghese pointed out that Asean’s “larger interest” was in a stable balance than having to align itself with either superpower. “There is a real question mark about what the Trump administration’s approach to the Indo-Pacific is going to be.”
He added that it was still unclear whether the Trump administration would follow past precedents of framing US strategic policy around military primacy.
“Does the Trump administration have a different view, and does it think about US exceptionalism and US primacy in a much more economic frame than it does in a strategic military frame? I think these are all still rather open questions,” he said.
Of the geopolitical concerns that the region is facing, aggressive behaviour in the South China Sea is the top concern for governments in Southeast Asia, overtaking the Israel-Gaza war.
This follows a string of altercations at sea between China and the Philippines, which have elevated the risks of accidental conflict, according to the report.
Coming in second and third place respectively are global scam operations and the new US leadership.
The worry over Trump’s second term is felt most acutely in Singapore, with 70.2 per cent of respondents expressing this sentiment.
“Any changes in US political, economic, and defence policies would impact Singapore, one of the US’ closest partners in the region. One of the biggest issues to have grabbed attention since the advent of Trump 2.0 are the allegations of export control violations of Nvidia chips in Singapore that enabled the development of China’s AI model DeepSeek,” the report said.
In February, Singapore charged three men with fraud, which national broadcaster Channel News Asia linked to the alleged transfer of Nvidia chips to China. The raids were launched shortly after media reports said intermediaries in the city state were bypassing American export controls and transporting Nvidia chips to China.
The case is part of a broader police investigation of 22 individuals and companies suspected of false representation.
