Many African countries that buy most of their arms from Russia could be forced to look for alternative suppliers
China likely to be a major beneficiary, as it already accounts for 13 per cent of African arms imports
The North African country of Algeria relies heavily on Moscow for its military hardware, but that could change if the war in Ukraine drags on, to the benefit of Chinese arms exporters.
As the war enters its second year and Russia prioritises its front-line military needs over exports, Algeria and many other African countries that buy most of their arms from Russia could be forced to look for alternative suppliers.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, Algeria is the largest African importer of Russian arms and weapons – including aircraft, air defence systems, missiles, ships and armoured vehicles – but the country also sources some of its arms from China, France and Germany.
SIPRI data showed that between 2008 and 2021, Algeria accounted for 12 per cent of Russian arms exports, trailing only China and India.
Egypt, Nigeria, Uganda, Sudan and Angola are other top African importers of Russian arms. Across the African continent, nearly half of the military equipment, including tanks, warships, fighter aircraft and combat helicopters, comes from Russia.
During the same period, China’s top buyers of arms in Africa were Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Cameroon and Tanzania. African countries buy everything from armoured vehicles to drones from China, but it is in small arms and light weapons, like the Chinese Type 56 assault rifle, that China is making its mark, according to observers.
Analysts said Russian military hardware was so dominant in Africa that sanctions on Russia would have a negative impact on African countries’ ability to maintain and repair equipment, and that was likely to open a door for Chinese exports.
Media reports last year said Algeria was in talks with China to acquire SY-400 ballistic missile systems. In the past decade it has bought military equipment including PLZ-45 155mm self-propelled howitzers, SR-5 multiple launch rocket systems and Type-07 and WZ-502G armoured personnel carrier vehicles from China.
Jason Li, a research associate with the East Asia programme at The Stimson Centre think tank, which is based in Washington, said Russia dominated arms sales to Africa from 2017 to 2021, with a 44 per cent market share according to data from SIPRI, followed by the United States with 17 per cent and China on 10 per cent.
But in 2014, when Russia seized control of Crimea, Russian arms exports dropped 31 per cent year on year and its arms exports to Africa also plummeted, reflecting a “preoccupation with its own security affairs”, Li said.
He said during and after Russia’s annexation of Crimea, Chinese arms exports to Africa continued to grow, peaking in 2016.
“If Crimea is a precedent, Chinese arms exports to Africa are slated to increase relative to Russian arms sales,” Li said.
Moses Khanyile, director of the Centre for Military Studies at Stellenbosch University in South Africa, said late last year that the void created by sanctions on Russia would have to be filled by other arms suppliers.
He said China was one of five countries, along with the United States, France, Germany and Russia, that accounted for 76 per cent of global arms exports between 2016 and 2020.
“It is therefore evident that these are the countries that will compete to replace Russia as a major arms supplier in Africa,” Khanyile said.
He said China was likely to be a major beneficiary, as it already accounted for 13 per cent of African arms imports.
“This could be further supported by other trade and diplomatic relations that China already has with African countries, including the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation,” Khanyile said.
Gustavo de Carvalho, a senior researcher on Russia-Africa ties with the African governance and diplomacy programme at the South African Institute of International Affairs, said China’s engagement with African countries had increased significantly over the past two decades.
He said the conflict between Russia and Ukraine may have allowed China to expand its arms sales in Africa, but other factors, such as China’s growing military-industrial complex and the demand from African countries, were also contributing to that trend.
Paul Stronski, a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia programme at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia was having trouble rearming its soldiers in Ukraine and was also unable to deliver weapons to some of its closest allies.
He said Russia’s hold over the arms trade in Africa was likely to weaken, especially if sanctions on the defence industry really began to degrade Russian arms.
“I see this as a boon to arms suppliers from other parts of the world, especially China and India,” Stronski said.
However, Benjamin Barton, an associate professor at the University of Nottingham’s Malaysia campus, said the arms industries in Russia and in Nato countries were benefiting from the Ukraine conflict and seeing an increase in demand for weaponry.
“My assumption would therefore be that overproduction of arms caused by the war might have the effect of leading to an increase in exports by arms manufacturers in those countries to other states around the world, African ones included,” Barton said.
He said China’s share of weapons exports to Africa had increased gradually over the years, despite tough competition from arms manufacturers from Russia, Ukraine, the US, Canada, the United Kingdom, Belgium, Germany, France and Iran.
“It could be that there may be a short-term uptick in exports triggered by the need for Russian and Ukrainian arms manufacturers to shift their focus entirely on the war effort,” Barton said. “However, this in no way guarantees that Chinese arms manufacturers will necessarily pick up the slack.”
