Trump says attacks ‘obliterated’ key sites, but analysts raise doubts about bunker buster’s abilities and whether uranium was present
Chinese defence experts expressed scepticism about US President Donald Trump’s claim that air strikes had “obliterated” Iran’s biggest nuclear facilities, following reports that core components of Tehran’s nuclear assets remained intact.
The mainland is believed to have the world’s most extensive underground bunker systems and has developed its own bunker-busting weapons, with ambitions to target facilities including those deep within the mountains of Taiwan.
CNN reported on Tuesday that an assessment by the Defence Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s intelligence arm, was at odds with Trump’s claim that Iran’s enrichment sites – Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan – were “completely and totally obliterated”.
While the full extent of the damage and its implications for Iran’s nuclear ambitions are still unclear, Chinese analysts agreed that the strikes were limited in effectiveness.
They cited factors including the gap between the depth of Iran’s underground facilities and the penetration capabilities of the bombs used, and reports that Tehran might have removed enriched uranium ahead of the attacks.
Chinese military aviation expert Fu Qianshao noted that the US said its “bunker buster” bomb was capable of penetrating 60 metres (197 feet) underground, but if the Iranian facilities were made of specially reinforced concrete, the effective depth would be far less.
“The Fordow facility is buried about 80 to 90 metres underground, so there was a gap there,” he added. “In the end, the US likely didn’t achieve the intended operational goal.”
The US dropped a total of 14 of its GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators using seven B-2 stealth bombers in the early hours of Sunday local time. The strikes targeted the fortified Fordow facility and the Natanz complex. A third site, Isfahan, was struck by Tomahawk missiles launched from a US submarine.
According to CNN, the strikes probably only set back Iran’s nuclear programme by months.
Two people familiar with the Defence Intelligence Agency’s assessment told CNN that Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium had not been destroyed. One of the people said the centrifuges were largely “intact”. Another source said the intelligence concluded that enriched uranium had been moved from the sites before the US strikes, according to the report.
“If the US now attempts to engage in further talks with Iran over the nuclear issue, it will face significant obstacles – because Iran will not trust any promises from Washington after the strikes,” Fu said.
“It’s worth paying close attention to how Iran adjusts its policies in the aftermath.”
“The likelihood that the US air strikes failed to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear capabilities is very high,” said Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor.
China’s bunker-penetrating weapons focus on land-based ballistic missiles like the DF-15C, a short-range missile unveiled in 2013 and designed for precision strikes on hardened underground targets such as reinforced bunkers. With a range of around 700km, the missile gives the People’s Liberation Army a significant regional strike capability, with targets in Okinawa, northern Vietnam, New Delhi and Taiwan reportedly in reach.
Song noted that China had taken a “distinct approach” to the technology compared to the United States, by opting to emphasise ballistic missile-based delivery for bunker-busting missions.
“I believe different countries pursue different strategies. China’s advantage lies in ballistic missiles, and we should continue to refine and master that capability.”
He explained that the American GBU-series bunker-busting bombs would struggle to penetrate Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear facilities, which were buried deep in solid rock.
“Achieving total destruction in such conditions is extremely challenging,” he said.
Song said critical indicators for assessing the damage included whether any 60 per cent enriched uranium survived the attacks, and how much, as well as the fate of centrifuges and related production facilities.
“Tehran has stated it can restore its nuclear activities quickly, which might reveal how severely its facilities were damaged,” he said. “The possibility that its programme has been completely wiped out is low.”
Song also pointed out that Iran had acted in advance to relocate critical materials and equipment, including highly enriched uranium and key machinery, to mitigate damage.
The assassination of many core personnel was “the biggest blow” to the Iranian nuclear programme, he said. “An entire programme can be crippled if its top scientists are eliminated, regardless of equipment.”
According to The New York Times, US intelligence agencies said before the attack that if Iran tried to rush making a bomb, it would take about three months.
After the US bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli Air Force, the report by the Defence Intelligence Agency estimated that the programme had been delayed, but by less than six months, according to The New York Times.
The White House disagreed with the agency’s findings, calling them “flat-out wrong”, according to media reports.
Iranian foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed on Wednesday that the country’s nuclear facilities had been “badly damaged” in the US strikes over the weekend.
A statement released by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Tuesday said it had seen “extensive” damage at several nuclear sites in Iran, including its uranium conversion and enrichment facilities.
Zhao Tong, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, said that regardless of the extent of damage to Fordow – Iran’s most heavily fortified enrichment site – Tehran may choose not to use it again.
“Instead, if it remains committed to developing nuclear weapons, it might pursue the construction of new clandestine facilities,” he said.
If a significant portion of the existing stockpile of roughly 400kg of 60 per cent enriched uranium was moved to undisclosed locations before the Israeli and US strikes, “Iran could potentially enrich it to weapons-grade levels relatively quickly,” Zhao added.
“Although it remains uncertain how much the Israeli and American strikes have impaired Iran’s material capacity to produce nuclear weapons, the attacks are likely to complicate Iran’s political calculus – as well as that of other non-nuclear weapon states contemplating future programmes,” he said.
“The fact that even Donald Trump – a president widely seen as sceptical of military intervention – was willing to use force to preempt Iran’s nuclear ambitions sends a strong deterrent message. It raises doubts in Tehran about whether future attempts to cross the nuclear threshold would go unpunished.”
According to Zhao, continuing advances in surveillance, reconnaissance, and espionage technologies are making it increasingly difficult to conceal a full-scale nuclear weapons programme – encompassing fissile material production, warhead development and delivery system integration – in total secrecy.
“While Iran may question whether Israel and the United States can reliably and consistently detect and eliminate every new facility, it must also weigh the risk of provoking broader military action, potentially including strikes aimed at regime change,” he said.
